The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on the brink of a historic breakthrough in German state elections, with the potential to secure the most votes for the first time since the era of the Nazis.
In Germany, the rise of the AfD is deeply polarizing. For some, particularly in the eastern states, the party represents a beacon of change amid widespread dissatisfaction. For others, it’s a chilling throwback to a more troubling past.
The political climate in Germany has been increasingly volatile throughout the year, with the upcoming elections in Thuringia and Saxony seen as a critical juncture. In Thuringia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), along with coalition partners from the Greens and Liberals, is facing a severe setback, with predictions suggesting they may not secure any seats in the state parliament. Conversely, the AfD is leading the polls. In neighboring Saxony, the AfD is neck-and-neck with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Recent events have intensified the political climate. A violent knife attack by a Syrian asylum seeker has fueled criticism of the government’s handling of migration, prompting a hasty response from ministers to introduce stricter asylum and crime laws. However, this response is unlikely to alleviate the broader discontent, which extends beyond immigration to include frustration with green policies, state interference, and military support for Ukraine.
In Thuringia, many voters, particularly in the east, feel neglected and resentful of the perceived economic disparity with the west. Constantin, a 16-year-old from Meiningen, reflects the sentiment of many young people in the region, expressing frustration over ongoing economic and social inequalities since German reunification.
Despite allegations of extremism linked to the AfD, including connections to extremist networks and controversial statements by party leader Björn Höcke, supporters argue that they are being unfairly targeted by the media and intelligence agencies. This skepticism is partly rooted in the historical context of East Germany, where residents endured the Stasi’s intrusive surveillance.
Meanwhile, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), another insurgent party, is gaining traction with its blend of cultural conservatism and left-wing economic policies. However, the AfD remains the most likely to make significant gains in the upcoming elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg.
Should the AfD achieve a strong electoral performance, it will create a major challenge for Chancellor Scholz and his coalition, which has struggled with internal disputes and public dissatisfaction. The results of these state elections will serve as a critical indicator of public sentiment ahead of the federal elections next year, where the CDU, under Friedrich Merz, is emerging as a potential contender for the chancellery, adopting a more right-wing stance in response to the AfD’s rise.
As Germany faces this potential political earthquake, the future of its political landscape hangs in the balance, reflecting deep-seated divisions and anxieties within the nation.
